Is Net Zero food possible?

Meta title: 

A net zero food future is possible. From your kitchen to global food systems: what needs to change

Can we feed the whole world without damaging the environment?

Is net zero global food even possible?

Standfirst

Our food systems produce 35% of global emissions and this is rising as demand for food increases without these, we’re unlikely to reach the 2050 1.5°C target set in Paris or the 2°C target set for 2100.

Is the global food system on track to meet the Paris goal of reaching net zero

Not yet no, 

but there are ways to get there

All hope is not lost. There are changes worth fighting for.

Challenging but achievable pathways exist to reduce emissions from the current 21.4 GtCO2e/y down to next zero.

Government and 

But there are trends beyond what the government currently controls that only we as individuals can impact. 

For example, the global demand for meat is increasing. This alone could increase overall emissions even if other steps to reduce are taken by farmers and governments.

What’s a food system?

Check

What’s GtCO₂e/y?

greenhouse gases emitted with the same impact as 21.4 gigatons of CO₂ per year

The takeaway

• A net zero, endlessly sustainable way of producing enough food to feed the world’s people is achievable by 2050. Even with the global population growing.
• It won’t be easy – the agriculture and food industries will have to make some big changes. We’ll need to move to growing crops and raising animals in ways that reduce their carbon emissions, most likely along agroecological lines. We need to be finding large-scale ways to store (‘sequester’) carbon.
• Changes made so far haven’t gone far enough. We won’t be on track to reach this future without more work.
• As an individual, you can make a difference. You can immediately take action to reduce that amount of meat and dairy in your diet and replace it with more fruit, vegetables and pulses for protein. 
• No pathways to sustainability assume that we’ll all give up meat entirely, but if you’re tending towards veganism, then the meat you don’t eat could offset that of someone who isn’t ready to make dietary changes just yet.
• It’s possible that this could be enough. If it’s not, we’ll need to rely on new technologies to emerge and become mainstream enough to absorb any remaining carbon emissions imbalance.
• The biggest challenge will be that all of the actions we need to take to reach net zero rely on two things that are difficult to control. The first is behavioural change in the ways of eating, doing business and farming, and the second is sufficient investment being available to scale changes up to impact on a global scale.

Infographic showing emissions now and 1+ scenarios where these are reduced over time

It requires

Small improvement /medium / large, XL improvement in 

Biggest impact from move to less carbon emitting ways of producing

Carbon sequestration

Diet changes from animal to plant protein

With the shortfall being made up from new technologies

Without reliance on offsetting through schemes like reforestation

What scale of each is needed?

Add some good visualisations

Significant change is required

Challenges

• Uptake of low emissions practices
• Scaling and uptake of carbon sequiestration
• Sufficient investment

The long read

A sustainable food system

Globally

Pathways limiting warming to likely 2°C or lower are projected to reach net zero CO2 emissions in the AFOLU sector around 2033 (2024–2060);

While IAMs include many land-based mitigation options, these models exclude several options with large mitigation potential, such as biochar, agroforestry, restoration/avoided conversion of coastal wetlands, and restoration/avoided conversion of peatland (IPCC 2019a; Smith et al. 2019) 

Timeline

(Costa)

Summarise from different studies what the key areas of focus are.

THe maximum change in every area is unlikely because

It will need global and national government approaches transforming into actionable local policies 

There’s no one size fits all approach that will work across every region and every culture.

Different potential for impact in different localities.

Finance will be a challenge. 

Achieving 50% of potential would be enough for the food systems contribution to hitting the 1.5C goal.

Even 50% is a huge change

“The transition to net zero will require nothing less that a twenty-first-century revolution in land use, farming practice and the food system.”

Net Zero, Food and Farming: Climate Change and the UK Agri-Food System (Earthscan Food and Agriculture)

by Neil Ward (Author) 

The likelihood of reaching these most optimistic scenarios isn’t something to be overly optimistic about. A 2018 European model shows that we could feed all 530m Europeans (including the UK at that point) using an an agroecological plan using just 92% of the EU UAA (Utilised agricultural area) land and maintaining some dairy and cereal export capacity as well as producing biofuels and biomaterials to create the carbon required for energy and materials production, to replace fossil fuels and oil-derived plastics.

In this scenario, we would only reach the worst case scenarios assessed by Costa, and reduce GHGs by 40%, leaving much work to be done through carbon sequestration and new technologies.

Similarly in the UK, through dietary and agricultural change, we could maintain or even slightly reduce our reliance on imports. https://sustainablefoodtrust.org/our-work/feeding-britain/

If we don’t allow any land for biofuel or biomaterial production, GHGs could be reduced by 40% https://www.iddri.org/sites/default/files/PDF/Publications/Catalogue%20Iddri/Etude/202111-ST1021-TYFA%20UK_0.pdf and the UK could become more self sufficient for food.

Diet change

Have to be importing less plan protein to feed animals

Similar amounts of grazing animals – beef and lamb – and less pork, chicken.

Reducing agricultural emissions

Biggest potential for reduction in beef, rice and … (Costa)

• Improved water management in rice paddies
• Nutrient management (e.g., balance nitrogen application)
• Biochar
• No-till and residue management
• Grazing management; animal feeding, health and breeding and feed additives
• Manure management
• Agroforestry
• Avoid food loss and waste
• Renewable energy and improved fuel efficiency

Livestock production (meat and milk) alone accounts for 60% of total FSs emissions (12.6 GtCO2e) (Fig. 1). Close to 70% of FS emissions come from land-use change and farming activities. (Costa)

Under current average production practices, meeting the 2050 projected food production7 would increase FS emissions by 38% (~ 8 GtCO2e/y) compared to 2020, respectively (Costa)

Costa

This diverse pipeline, including consumer-ready artificial meat, methane inhibitors, intelligent packaging, vertical agriculture, nano-drones and 3-D printing, presents real opportunities for systemic change17. Also, if these technologies are developed to reduce costs of existing agricultural-related practices that are not cost-effective today (e.g., > 100 USD/tCO2e), it could unlock emissions reductions and carbon sequestration of approximately 8.5 GtCO2e/y, representing close to 40% of today’s FSs emissions and 50% of agricultural-related mitigation potential5. For example, the implementation of agroforestry has the technical potential to sequester approximately 11.2 GtCO2e/y, but only 20% of this potential is considered cost-effective today.

(Costa)

If AFOLU measures are deployed badly, when

taken together with the increasing need to produce sufficient

food, feed, fuel and wood, they may exacerbate trade-offs with the

conservation of habitats, adaptation, biodiversity and other services. 

At the same time the capacity of the land to support these functions may be threatened by climate change

Not all mitigation strategies are most cost effective than carbon offsetting, making them economically less attractive. https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg3/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGIII_FullReport.pdf

Limiting warming to likely 2°C (>67%) or lower can result in large-scale transformation of the land surface (high confidence). Pathways with more demand-side mitigation options show less land transformation than those with more limited options (Grubler et al. 2018; van Vuuren et al. 2018; IPCC 2019a). Most of these pathways show increases in forest cover, with an increase of 322 million ha  (–67 to 890 million ha) in 2050 in pathways that limit warming to  1.5°C (>50%). Many IAM pathways also include large amounts of energy cropland area, to supply biomass for bioenergy and BECCS, with 199 (56–482) million ha in 2050 in pathways that limit warming to 1.5°C (>50%) with no or limited overshoot.

Large land transformations, such as afforestation/reforestation and widespread planting of energy crops, can have implications for biodiversity and sustainable development (Sections 3.7, 7.7.4 and 12.5).https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg3/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGIII_FullReport.pdf

Carbon sequestration

Harnessing the carbon sequestration potential associated with low-emissions agricultural practices could contribute to an additional emission abatement of 10.5 GtCO2e/y5. Most of this potential is related to the below- and above-ground carbon accumulation with the expansion of agroforestry systems (5.6 GtCO2e/y) and soil carbon sequestration with improvements of pasture and crop management (2.5 GtCO2e/y), such as the adoption of reduced and no-tillage and grass-legume mixtures in pastures, and the application of biochar to soils (2.4 GtCO2e/y)5. (Costa)

New technologies

For a successful transition to happen, the global FSs would, in the next decade (2020s), need to implement cost-effective mitigation practices and technologies, supported by improvements in countries’ governance and technical assistance, innovative financial mechanisms and research focused on making affordable technologies in the following two decades (2030–2050). This work provides options and a vision to guide global FSs to achieving net-zero by 2050. (Costa)

We anticipate entry of high efficacy methane suppressing products to the UK market from 2025 and will explore the role of industry and government to maximise uptake of such products for suitable cattle farm systems at pace, through a phased approach.

The investment challenge

Reworded from an article on the Costa report: Governance and finance mechanisms will be needed to reduce deforestation and emissions from high-emitting crops and livestock and promote sequestration at the scale required to reduce global food emissions. For strategies that are already cost effective, traditional bank loans should be explored. To promote practices that are less cost effective, public dollars can be strategically invested in private ventures to reduce initial risks of early adoption and scale up carbon markets. The authors also spotlight the need for long-term philanthropic and patient private capital investments in high-risk emerging technologies. 

The impact of higher interest rates

The government challenge

Not enough

The CCC suggests that net emissions from agriculture and land use will need to be reduced by 69 MtCO2e by 2050. Of that reduction, 7MtCO2e (ten per cent) could come from dietary change and reducing food waste, 10MtCO2e (15 per cent) could come from changing farming practices, and 47MtCO2e (68 per cent) could come from afforestation and energy crops https://www.theccc.org.uk/publication/2022-progress-report-to-parliament/

Not enough from the UK food strategy:

While the food strategy does acknowledge that regenerative farming can have an important role to play, the overall trajectory of the strategy is towards intensification of food production, increased reliance on technological innovation and gene editing as well as a big emphasis on global trade.https://sustainablefoodtrust.org/news-views/government-food-strategy/

The measures build on the progress that farmers have already made. Since 1990, agricultural emissions have reduced by 12%. 

The dairy sector reduced greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 12% between 2000 and 2020, while still increasing milk production by 11% with 21% fewer cows.  

Reducing further the greenhouse gas emissions of the sector will require a combination of incentives, clear and well enforced rules and supporting market driven innovations.  

The incentives for several of those measures are covered through the Sustainable Farming Incentive and Countryside Stewardship. For example introducing grass-legume mixtures.

Public campaigns are needed around food waste and diet change

Specific support is needed for agricultural policy

UK producers are on board

Courtauld 2030

Biggest names in food production and retail are committing to 

50% GHG reduction by 2030 and 

British Retail Consortium net zero commitment by 2040

➔ NFU’s goal of Net Zero emissions across the whole of agriculture in England and Wales by 2040. ➔ Courtauld 2030 – a voluntary agreement for UK food sector participants to achieve environmental targets including reducing emissions associated with food & drink consumed in the UK by 50% by 2030 (against a 2015 baseline) ➔ Zero Carbon Forum – supporting the hospitality sector to achieve Net Zero ➔ UK Plastics Pact – a WRAP-led initiative to create a circular economy for plastics. ➔ Food Waste Action Week – an annual week of action to end food waste.

336 UK farms have signed net zero pledges https://www.nfuonline.com/net-zero-make-your-pledge/

Big brands are getting on board

Small brands too

…

Charities supporting

What would this look like in the UK?

The UK’s net zero target can seem daunting when it comes to the agri-food system. There are, however, some grounds for optimism. 

The UK has been through agricultural transformations within living memory. The 1940s-70s era saw profound change, which was heavily shaped and influenced by government policy. The fact that the goals of net zero and improving public health are in alignment also gives some grounds for optimism. 

It takes time, but governments and populations do adapt to evidence of public health risks. There have been some successes with regulatory-forcing measures such as the Sugar Levy, and laws to ban the sale of new petrol and diesel cars after 2030 show a willingness to regulate to accelerate system change.

Overall, the UK has less than a decade to enact the steps needed to prevent increasingly unmanageable climate change.  Achieving this next transformation will depend upon a shared vision and the close working between private and public sector bodies across the agri-food system. https://nisd.ac.uk/what-does-net-zero-mean-for-the-uk-agri-food-system/

How can I help?

Standard block at the bottom of every article – 1 unique block per topic

Individuals and households

1. Reduce food waste
2. Choose plant-based foods more often

Businesses –

1. Source from climate positives farms & supply chains

Transport

Sourcing ingredients

Looking to buy food that’s net zero now?

Alara granola

https://www.reset-media.com/life/climate-positive-food – closed but reset media a good source

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